PAU vs Nantes preview
In the fixture between PAU and Nantes, the 1X2 probabilities show PAU and Nantes both at 36%, with a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% probability. PAU's expected goals stand at 1.77, while Nantes has a lower figure of 1.11.
Both teams to score has a 57% chance according to our model, and there is a 55% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals. However, PAU's recent form includes four wins followed by one loss, while Nantes has two draws and three losses in their last six matches. This disparity in form could impact the match outcome.
PAU vs Nantes: model vs market
| Source | PAU | Draw | Nantes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 26% | 23% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Published | 36% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices PAU below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.05, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +11.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
PAU vs Nantes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PAU, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 2.99 | 2.98 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.35 | +0.00 |
| Nantes | 2.29 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
PAU and Nantes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (PAU / Nantes)
- 1.26 / 0.85
- Defence rating (PAU / Nantes)
- 1.05 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
PAU vs Nantes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: PAU goals. Columns: Nantes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
PAU vs Nantes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for PAU vs Nantes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAU | 36% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Nantes | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (PAU or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Nantes) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | PAU win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
PAU and Nantes recent form
PAU
5W 0D 1L
Nantes
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
PAU at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Nantes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: PAU at home only, Nantes away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Montpellier vs Metz 2026-11-06
- Dijon v RED Star FC 93 — match page 2026-11-06
- Clermont Foot vs Rodez — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Grenoble vs Reims 2026-11-06
- Nancy v Sochaux — match page 2026-11-06
- Saint-Etienne vs Laval — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Boulogne v Annecy — match page 2026-11-06
- Dunkerque vs Guingamp — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- PAU, previous: Metz v PAU analysis
- PAU, next: Lourdes v PAU analysis
- Nantes, previous: Nantes – Clermont Foot, 2026-10-30
- Nantes, next: Castelbourgeois vs Nantes prediction