Montpellier vs Metz preview
Montpellier hosts Metz with a 60% probability for a Montpellier win and an expected scoreline of 2-0 at 11%. Montpellier's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Metz has only 1 win in their last 5. With Montpellier's expected goals at 1.91 compared to Metz's 0.88, the home side appears stronger.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams to score stands at 51%, suggesting that while Montpellier is favored, Metz could find a way to score. Additionally, the Over 2.5 goals probability is 53%, meaning a high-scoring match is possible, but not guaranteed.
Why this pick: Montpellier vs Metz
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Montpellier 10, Metz 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Montpellier vs Metz: model vs market
| Source | Montpellier | Draw | Metz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Montpellier below our published probability: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Montpellier vs Metz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Montpellier, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 2.04 | 1.98 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.22 | 3.40 | +0.18 |
| Metz | 3.74 | 3.74 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Montpellier and Metz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Montpellier / Metz)
- 1.22 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Montpellier / Metz)
- 0.59 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Montpellier vs Metz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Montpellier goals. Columns: Metz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Montpellier vs Metz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Montpellier vs Metz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montpellier | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Metz | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Montpellier or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Metz) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Montpellier win by 2+ | 43% | 2.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Montpellier and Metz recent form
Montpellier
5W 1D 0L
Metz
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Montpellier at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Metz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Montpellier at home only, Metz away only.
Montpellier vs Metz head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Montpellier 3 · draws 0 · Metz 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Metz | 0-4 | Montpellier | Coupe de France |
| 2024-02-18 | Montpellier | 3-0 | Metz | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-17 | Metz | 0-1 | Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Dijon v RED Star FC 93 — match page 2026-11-06
- Clermont Foot vs Rodez — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Grenoble vs Reims 2026-11-06
- Nancy v Sochaux — match page 2026-11-06
- Saint-Etienne vs Laval — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- PAU vs Nantes 2026-11-06
- Boulogne v Annecy — match page 2026-11-06
- Dunkerque vs Guingamp — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Montpellier, previous: Annecy – Montpellier, 2026-10-31
- Montpellier, next: Balagne vs Montpellier: odds and pick
- Metz, previous: Metz v PAU analysis
- Metz, next: Kellermann – Metz, 2026-11-14