Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück preview
In the upcoming match between Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück, the 1X2 probabilities show Arminia Bielefeld at 56%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 9%. The expected goals are 2.14 for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.46 for VfL Osnabrück, indicating a strong attacking performance from the home side.
Both teams to score stands at 69%, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 70%. However, the recent form of both teams could impact these outcomes. Arminia Bielefeld has a record of W-D-L-D-L-D, while VfL Osnabrück shows D-D-L-W-L-W. This inconsistency might affect the expected scoring and overall match dynamics.
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück: model vs market
| Source | Arminia Bielefeld | Draw | VfL Osnabrück |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.46.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arminia Bielefeld, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arminia Bielefeld | 1.65 | 1.70 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.02 | -0.13 |
| VfL Osnabrück | 4.60 | 4.23 | -0.37 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Arminia Bielefeld / VfL Osnabrück)
- 1.13 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Arminia Bielefeld / VfL Osnabrück)
- 1.10 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arminia Bielefeld goals. Columns: VfL Osnabrück goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| VfL Osnabrück | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arminia Bielefeld or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or VfL Osnabrück) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arminia Bielefeld win by 2+ | 32% | 3.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück recent form
Arminia Bielefeld
1W 3D 2L
VfL Osnabrück
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arminia Bielefeld at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VfL Osnabrück away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arminia Bielefeld at home only, VfL Osnabrück away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC 2026-10-16
- Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2026-10-16
- Wolfsburg v FC Heidenheim — match page 2026-10-17
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig 2026-10-17
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Bochum — match page 2026-10-17
- Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page 2026-10-18
- Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Arminia Bielefeld, previous: Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld: odds and pick
- VfL Osnabrück, previous: VfL Osnabrück – Dynamo Dresden, 2026-10-10