Wolfsburg vs FC Heidenheim preview
In the upcoming match between Wolfsburg and FC Heidenheim, the 1X2 probabilities show Wolfsburg at 58%, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 at 8%. The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 75%.
Wolfsburg's expected goals stand at 2.59, while FC Heidenheim's is 1.63, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game. However, the confidence grade is C, which means unexpected outcomes are possible. Recent form shows Wolfsburg with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while FC Heidenheim has 4 wins in their last 6, which could influence the match dynamics.
Why this pick: Wolfsburg vs FC Heidenheim
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Wolfsburg 10, FC Heidenheim 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Wolfsburg vs FC Heidenheim: model vs market
| Source | Wolfsburg | Draw | FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 18% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 24% |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | +6% | -6% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 1.88.
- The market prices Wolfsburg below the model: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Wolfsburg vs FC Heidenheim odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wolfsburg, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg | 1.79 | 1.79 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.79 | 3.77 | -0.02 |
| FC Heidenheim | 3.93 | 3.93 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wolfsburg and FC Heidenheim expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.73
- Attack rating (Wolfsburg / FC Heidenheim)
- 1.53 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Wolfsburg / FC Heidenheim)
- 1.21 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wolfsburg vs FC Heidenheim score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wolfsburg goals. Columns: FC Heidenheim goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wolfsburg vs FC Heidenheim goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wolfsburg vs FC Heidenheim
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolfsburg | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| FC Heidenheim | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 6.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 5.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wolfsburg or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Heidenheim) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolfsburg win by 2+ | 39% | 2.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Wolfsburg and FC Heidenheim recent form
Wolfsburg
2W 3D 1L
FC Heidenheim
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wolfsburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.5 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Heidenheim away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wolfsburg at home only, FC Heidenheim away only.
Wolfsburg vs FC Heidenheim head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Wolfsburg 5 · draws 2 · FC Heidenheim 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Wolfsburg | 1-1 | FC Heidenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-23 | FC Heidenheim | 1-3 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-03-29 | Wolfsburg | 0-1 | FC Heidenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-10 | FC Heidenheim | 1-3 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-20 | FC Heidenheim | 1-1 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-08-19 | Wolfsburg | 2-0 | FC Heidenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2016-10-26 | FC Heidenheim | 0-1 | Wolfsburg | DFB Pokal |
| 2014-10-29 | Wolfsburg | 4-1 | FC Heidenheim | DFB Pokal |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC 2026-10-16
- Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2026-10-16
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig 2026-10-17
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Bochum — match page 2026-10-17
- Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page 2026-10-18
- Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Wolfsburg, previous: 1. FC Nürnberg v Wolfsburg analysis
- Wolfsburg, next: Freiburg vs Wolfsburg prediction
- FC Heidenheim, previous: FC Heidenheim – 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 2026-10-09