Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli preview
In the upcoming match between Hannover 96 and St. Pauli, Hannover 96 has a 61% probability to win, while St. Pauli stands at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Hannover 96's expected goals are 2.19 compared to St. Pauli's 1.09, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the home side.
However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams to score has a 60% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 64%. If St. Pauli can improve their recent form, which includes only 1 win in their last 6 matches, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli: model vs market
| Source | Hannover 96 | Draw | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Published | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Edge | +9% | 0% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Hannover 96 below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hannover 96, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover 96 | 2.05 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.88 | +0.00 |
| St. Pauli | 3.05 | 3.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hannover 96 and St. Pauli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Hannover 96 / St. Pauli)
- 1.22 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Hannover 96 / St. Pauli)
- 1.08 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hannover 96 goals. Columns: St. Pauli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hannover 96 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| St. Pauli | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hannover 96 or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or St. Pauli) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hannover 96 win by 2+ | 33% | 3.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Hannover 96 and St. Pauli recent form
Hannover 96
3W 1D 2L
St. Pauli
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hannover 96 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Pauli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hannover 96 at home only, St. Pauli away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC 2026-10-16
- Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2026-10-16
- Wolfsburg v FC Heidenheim — match page 2026-10-17
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig 2026-10-17
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Bochum — match page 2026-10-17
- Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page 2026-10-18
- Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Hannover 96, previous: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 prediction
- Hannover 96, next: Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern: odds and pick
- St. Pauli, previous: St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC: odds and pick