Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea preview
In the Super League 2 fixture between Apollon Pontou and Kallithea, the 1X2 probabilities show Kallithea at 68% to win, while Apollon Pontou sits at just 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, which occurs at a 19% probability.
Apollon Pontou's recent form includes four losses and one draw, while Kallithea has won three of their last five matches. This discrepancy in form could lead to Kallithea securing a victory, but if Apollon Pontou improves their performance, it could challenge the expected outcome. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 24%, and both teams to score is at 31%, indicating a low-scoring match is more likely.
Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea: model vs market
| Source | Apollon Pontou | Draw | Kallithea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 35% | 47% |
| Market | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| Published | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Edge | +1% | +3% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.10 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kallithea, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apollon Pontou | 12.75 | 6.20 | -6.55 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 4.25 | -0.65 |
| Kallithea | 1.22 | 1.46 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Apollon Pontou and Kallithea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.68
- Attack rating (Apollon Pontou / Kallithea)
- 0.69 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Apollon Pontou / Kallithea)
- 1.14 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Apollon Pontou goals. Columns: Kallithea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apollon Pontou | 16% | 6.37 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Kallithea | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.28 |
| No | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Apollon Pontou or draw) | 41% | 2.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Kallithea) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kallithea win by 2+ | 20% | 4.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Apollon Pontou and Kallithea recent form
Apollon Pontou
1W 1D 4L
Kallithea
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Apollon Pontou at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Kallithea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Apollon Pontou at home only, Kallithea away only.
Apollon Pontou vs Kallithea head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Apollon Pontou 2 · draws 0 · Kallithea 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-01 | Kallithea | 0-1 | Apollon Pontou | Football League |
| 2017-12-10 | Apollon Pontou | 1-0 | Kallithea | Football League |
| 2012-10-25 | Apollon Pontou | 0-1 | Kallithea | Cup |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Ellas Syros vs Panthrakikos 2026-11-14
- Panserraikos vs Anagennisi Karditsas — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Larisa v Nestos Chrisoupolis — match page 2026-11-14
- Asteras Tripolis II v PAOK II — match page 2026-11-14
- Marko vs Zakynthos — team news & stats 2026-11-16
- Panionios vs Olympiakos Piraeus II 2026-11-16
- Niki Volos v Pyrgos 1968 — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Apollon Pontou, previous: Panserraikos – Apollon Pontou, 2026-11-07
- Kallithea, previous: Kallithea vs Panionios prediction