Updated

Super League 2 · Matchday 11

Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Asteras Tripolis II to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Asteras Tripolis IIDrawPAOK II

Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAsteras Tripolis IIDrawPAOK II
Model41%29%29%
Market46%28%26%
Published45%29%27%
Edge-1%0%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Asteras Tripolis II, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-10.

Opened 1.96Now 1.99 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Asteras Tripolis II1.961.99+0.03
Draw3.173.20+0.03
PAOK II3.513.51+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Asteras Tripolis II and PAOK II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Asteras Tripolis II
1.13PAOK II
Total expected goals
2.52
Attack rating (Asteras Tripolis II / PAOK II)
0.96 / 1.10
Defence rating (Asteras Tripolis II / PAOK II)
1.04 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 7.8% 5.1% 1.9% 0.7% 1 9.9% 13.9% 7.1% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.8% 8.8% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 3 3.6% 4.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.7% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Asteras Tripolis II goals. Columns: PAOK II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Asteras Tripolis II45%2.24
Draw29%3.50
PAOK II27%3.73
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.16
Under 2.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.09
Double chance1X (Asteras Tripolis II or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or PAOK II)55%1.81
Handicap -1Asteras Tripolis II win by 2+20%4.91
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Asteras Tripolis II and PAOK II recent form

Asteras Tripolis II 2W 4D 0L
PAOK II 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Asteras Tripolis II at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

PAOK II away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis II at home only, PAOK II away only.

Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Asteras Tripolis II 1 · draws 1 · PAOK II 0.

Asteras Tripolis IIDrawsPAOK II
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-06Asteras Tripolis II1-1PAOK IISuper League 2
2025-10-04PAOK II0-1Asteras Tripolis IISuper League 2

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match