Updated

Super League 2 · Matchday 11

Ellas Syros vs Panthrakikos

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Ellas Syros to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ellas SyrosDrawPanthrakikos

Ellas Syros vs Panthrakikos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEllas SyrosDrawPanthrakikos
Model61%24%16%
Market50%27%23%
Published53%26%21%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.87.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ellas Syros below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ellas Syros vs Panthrakikos odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ellas Syros, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-10.

Opened 1.73Now 1.83 +0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ellas Syros1.731.83+0.09
Draw3.453.42-0.03
Panthrakikos4.043.94-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ellas Syros and Panthrakikos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.91Ellas Syros
0.87Panthrakikos
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Ellas Syros / Panthrakikos)
1.23 / 1.06
Defence rating (Ellas Syros / Panthrakikos)
0.84 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ellas Syros vs Panthrakikos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 4.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1 10.8% 11.4% 4.5% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.3% 9.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3 7.2% 6.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 5.3% 4.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Ellas Syros goals. Columns: Panthrakikos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ellas Syros vs Panthrakikos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ellas Syros vs Panthrakikos

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ellas Syros53%1.90
Draw26%3.85
Panthrakikos21%4.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Ellas Syros or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Panthrakikos)47%2.12
Handicap -1Ellas Syros win by 2+37%2.71
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ellas Syros and Panthrakikos recent form

Ellas Syros 2W 2D 2L
Panthrakikos 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ellas Syros at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

Panthrakikos away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ellas Syros at home only, Panthrakikos away only.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match