Updated

Super League 2 · Matchday 11

Larisa vs Nestos Chrisoupolis

· AEL FC Arena, Larissa

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Larisa to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LarisaDrawNestos Chrisoupolis

Larisa vs Nestos Chrisoupolis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLarisaDrawNestos Chrisoupolis
Model76%17%6%
Market67%21%12%
Published69%20%10%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 0.52.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Larisa below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Larisa vs Nestos Chrisoupolis odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Larisa, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-10.

Opened 1.25Now 1.37 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Larisa1.251.37+0.11
Draw4.474.33-0.14
Nestos Chrisoupolis9.387.80-1.58

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Larisa and Nestos Chrisoupolis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.26Larisa
0.52Nestos Chrisoupolis
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Larisa / Nestos Chrisoupolis)
1.26 / 0.77
Defence rating (Larisa / Nestos Chrisoupolis)
0.69 / 1.36

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Larisa vs Nestos Chrisoupolis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1 13.3% 8.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 2 15.8% 8.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 3 11.9% 6.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 4+ 11.5% 6.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0%

Rows: Larisa goals. Columns: Nestos Chrisoupolis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Larisa vs Nestos Chrisoupolis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Larisa vs Nestos Chrisoupolis

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Larisa69%1.44
Draw20%4.94
Nestos Chrisoupolis10%9.62
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.69
No63%1.59
Double chance1X (Larisa or draw)90%1.12
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Nestos Chrisoupolis)31%3.27
Handicap -1Larisa win by 2+53%1.88
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Larisa and Nestos Chrisoupolis recent form

Larisa 3W 2D 1L
Nestos Chrisoupolis 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Larisa at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-0
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.40
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Nestos Chrisoupolis away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Larisa at home only, Nestos Chrisoupolis away only.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match