Arezzo vs Cremonese Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Arezzo vs Cremonese: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Arezzo	Draw	Cremonese
Model	33%	28%	39%
Market	32%	30%	38%
Published	32%	30%	38%
Edge	+1%	-2%	+1%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Arezzo vs Cremonese odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cremonese, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.45Now 2.45 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Arezzo	2.91	2.91	+0.00
Draw	3.08	3.09	+0.00
Cremonese	2.45	2.45	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Arezzo and Cremonese expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.31Arezzo

1.45Cremonese

Total expected goals: 2.77
Attack rating (Arezzo / Cremonese): 0.92 / 0.94
Defence rating (Arezzo / Cremonese): 1.42 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arezzo vs Cremonese score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 7.9% 6.7% 3.2% 1.6% 1 7.0% 13.2% 8.7% 4.2% 2.1% 2 5.4% 7.9% 5.7% 2.8% 1.4% 3 2.4% 3.4% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 4+ 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Arezzo goals. Columns: Cremonese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arezzo vs Cremonese goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arezzo vs Cremonese

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Arezzo	32%	3.11
	Draw	30%	3.39
	Cremonese	38%	2.61
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.91
	Under 2.5	48%	2.09
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.75
	No	43%	2.34
Double chance	1X (Arezzo or draw)	62%	1.62
	12 (either side)	70%	1.42
	X2 (draw or Cremonese)	68%	1.47
Handicap -1	Cremonese win by 2+	19%	5.15
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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