Avellino vs Sampdoria Prediction & Betting Tips 09/10/2026

Avellino vs Sampdoria preview

The fixture between Avellino and Sampdoria sees Avellino with a 38% chance to win, while Sampdoria has a 32% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Avellino, which has a 14% probability. With expected goals of 1.44 for Avellino and 0.81 for Sampdoria, the stats suggest a close match.

However, there are factors that could affect this outcome. Both teams to score has a 44% chance, indicating that while a low-scoring game is likely, there is still potential for goals from either side. Recent form shows Avellino with mixed results and Sampdoria struggling, which may influence performance on the day.

Avellino vs Sampdoria: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Avellino	Draw	Sampdoria
Model	51%	29%	20%
Market	34%	30%	36%
Published	38%	29%	32%
Edge	+16%	0%	-16%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.81.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Avellino below the model: +16.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.85, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Avellino vs Sampdoria odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Avellino, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.70Now 2.70 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Avellino	2.70	2.70	+0.00
Draw	3.14	3.14	+0.00
Sampdoria	2.56	2.56	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Avellino and Sampdoria expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.44Avellino

0.81Sampdoria

Total expected goals: 2.25
Attack rating (Avellino / Sampdoria): 0.90 / 0.71
Defence rating (Avellino / Sampdoria): 1.05 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Avellino vs Sampdoria score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.8% 7.3% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 1 13.9% 13.5% 5.0% 1.4% 0.3% 2 10.9% 8.9% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 3 5.2% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Avellino goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Avellino vs Sampdoria goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Avellino vs Sampdoria

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Avellino	38%	2.60
	Draw	29%	3.39
	Sampdoria	32%	3.11
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.56
	Under 2.5	61%	1.64
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.29
	No	56%	1.77
Double chance	1X (Avellino or draw)	68%	1.47
	12 (either side)	71%	1.42
	X2 (draw or Sampdoria)	62%	1.62
Handicap -1	Avellino win by 2+	26%	3.85
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer