Empoli vs Palermo Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Empoli vs Palermo preview

Empoli hosts Palermo in Serie B, with the market showing a 48% chance for an away win. Palermo's recent form is strong, with six consecutive matches without a loss, while Empoli has struggled, winning just two of their last six. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, reflecting Palermo's superior expected goals of 1.54 compared to Empoli's 1.07.

While both teams to score stands at 53%, Empoli's recent performances could lead to a lower output. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions. If Empoli can improve their attacking efficiency, it may change the dynamics of the match.

Empoli vs Palermo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Empoli	Draw	Palermo
Model	25%	28%	47%
Market	26%	26%	48%
Published	26%	27%	48%
Edge	-1%	+1%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.07.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Empoli vs Palermo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Palermo, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.91Now 1.95 +0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Empoli	3.73	3.60	-0.12
Draw	3.54	3.52	-0.02
Palermo	1.91	1.95	+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Empoli and Palermo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Empoli

1.54Palermo

Total expected goals: 2.61
Attack rating (Empoli / Palermo): 0.81 / 1.45
Defence rating (Empoli / Palermo): 0.98 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Empoli vs Palermo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.5% 10.1% 8.7% 4.5% 2.4% 1 6.6% 13.3% 9.3% 4.8% 2.6% 2 4.2% 6.5% 5.0% 2.6% 1.4% 3 1.5% 2.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Empoli goals. Columns: Palermo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Empoli vs Palermo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 53%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Empoli vs Palermo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Empoli	26%	3.89
	Draw	27%	3.73
	Palermo	48%	2.10
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.06
	Under 2.5	51%	1.94
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	1.89
	No	47%	2.12
Double chance	1X (Empoli or draw)	52%	1.91
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Palermo)	74%	1.35
Handicap -1	Palermo win by 2+	25%	4.07
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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