Padova vs Carrarese Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Padova vs Carrarese: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Padova	Draw	Carrarese
Model	47%	33%	20%
Market	48%	28%	24%
Published	48%	29%	23%
Edge	-1%	+5%	-4%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.69.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Padova vs Carrarese odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Padova, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.94Now 1.94 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Padova	1.94	1.94	+0.00
Draw	3.32	3.32	+0.00
Carrarese	3.83	3.83	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Padova and Carrarese expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Padova

0.69Carrarese

Total expected goals: 1.88
Attack rating (Padova / Carrarese): 0.83 / 0.64
Defence rating (Padova / Carrarese): 1.00 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Padova vs Carrarese score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.5% 9.3% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 1 16.9% 13.8% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 2 10.8% 7.4% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 3 4.3% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Padova goals. Columns: Carrarese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Padova vs Carrarese goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 57%

Over 2.5 29%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 36%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Padova vs Carrarese

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Padova	48%	2.10
	Draw	29%	3.42
	Carrarese	23%	4.31
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	29%	3.45
	Under 2.5	71%	1.41
Both teams to score	Yes	36%	2.79
	No	64%	1.56
Double chance	1X (Padova or draw)	77%	1.30
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Carrarese)	52%	1.91
Handicap -1	Padova win by 2+	21%	4.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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