Modena vs Verona Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Modena vs Verona: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Modena	Draw	Verona
Model	45%	28%	28%
Market	48%	28%	24%
Published	47%	28%	25%
Edge	-3%	0%	+3%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.16.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Modena vs Verona odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Modena, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.96Now 1.96 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Modena	1.96	1.96	+0.00
Draw	3.35	3.35	+0.00
Verona	3.83	3.83	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Modena and Verona expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54Modena

1.16Verona

Total expected goals: 2.70
Attack rating (Modena / Verona): 1.02 / 1.12
Defence rating (Modena / Verona): 0.96 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Modena vs Verona score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 6.6% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1 9.2% 13.2% 7.0% 2.7% 1.0% 2 8.0% 9.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.1% 4.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Modena goals. Columns: Verona goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Modena vs Verona goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Modena vs Verona

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Modena	47%	2.13
	Draw	28%	3.59
	Verona	25%	3.97
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.98
	Under 2.5	49%	2.02
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.82
	No	45%	2.23
Double chance	1X (Modena or draw)	75%	1.34
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Verona)	53%	1.88
Handicap -1	Modena win by 2+	23%	4.31
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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