Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Vicenza Virtus	Draw	Pisa
Model	57%	23%	20%
Market	32%	28%	40%
Published	39%	26%	35%
Edge	+25%	-4%	-20%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.13.
The market prices Vicenza Virtus below the model: +24.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.02, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Vicenza Virtus, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.66Now 2.88 +0.22

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Vicenza Virtus	2.66	2.88	+0.22
Draw	3.34	3.38	+0.04
Pisa	2.49	2.34	-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Vicenza Virtus and Pisa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.03Vicenza Virtus

1.13Pisa

Total expected goals: 3.16
Attack rating (Vicenza Virtus / Pisa): 0.98 / 0.84
Defence rating (Vicenza Virtus / Pisa): 1.25 / 1.41

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 3.8% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 1 7.6% 10.7% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% 2 8.7% 9.9% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 3 5.9% 6.7% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 4.8% 5.4% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%

Rows: Vicenza Virtus goals. Columns: Pisa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Vicenza Virtus	39%	2.59
	Draw	26%	3.77
	Pisa	35%	2.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.63
	Under 2.5	39%	2.58
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.49
Double chance	1X (Vicenza Virtus or draw)	65%	1.53
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Pisa)	61%	1.63
Handicap -1	Vicenza Virtus win by 2+	35%	2.85
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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