Sudtirol vs Ascoli Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Sudtirol vs Ascoli preview

The fixture between Sudtirol and Ascoli shows a 40% chance for Sudtirol to win, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 11%. The model indicates that there is a 43% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score.

Sudtirol's expected goals stand at 1.37, while Ascoli's is lower at 1.05. Recent form favors Sudtirol, who have won three of their last five matches, compared to Ascoli's mixed results with two wins and three losses in the same period. The confidence grade is C, suggesting that while the probabilities are aligned with market odds, there is room for uncertainty in the outcome.

Sudtirol vs Ascoli: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sudtirol	Draw	Ascoli
Model	43%	30%	27%
Market	39%	31%	31%
Published	40%	30%	30%
Edge	+4%	-1%	-3%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 1.05.
The market prices Sudtirol below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Sudtirol vs Ascoli odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sudtirol, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.41Now 2.41 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Sudtirol	2.41	2.41	+0.00
Draw	3.03	3.03	+0.00
Ascoli	3.02	3.02	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sudtirol and Ascoli expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Sudtirol

1.05Ascoli

Total expected goals: 2.41
Attack rating (Sudtirol / Ascoli): 0.97 / 1.12
Defence rating (Sudtirol / Ascoli): 0.86 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sudtirol vs Ascoli score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 8.1% 4.9% 1.7% 0.6% 1 11.0% 14.1% 6.7% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.4% 8.7% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3 3.8% 4.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Sudtirol goals. Columns: Ascoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sudtirol vs Ascoli goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 43%

Over 3.5 22%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sudtirol vs Ascoli

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sudtirol	40%	2.52
	Draw	30%	3.29
	Ascoli	30%	3.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	43%	2.31
	Under 2.5	57%	1.76
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	2.02
	No	50%	1.98
Double chance	1X (Sudtirol or draw)	70%	1.43
	12 (either side)	70%	1.44
	X2 (draw or Ascoli)	60%	1.66
Handicap -1	Sudtirol win by 2+	21%	4.81
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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