Catanzaro vs Mantova Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Catanzaro vs Mantova: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Catanzaro	Draw	Mantova
Model	40%	24%	36%
Market	40%	28%	32%
Published	40%	27%	33%
Edge	-1%	-3%	+4%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Catanzaro vs Mantova odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Catanzaro, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.30Now 2.30 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Catanzaro	2.30	2.30	+0.00
Draw	3.37	3.37	+0.00
Mantova	2.91	2.91	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Catanzaro and Mantova expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78Catanzaro

1.70Mantova

Total expected goals: 3.47
Attack rating (Catanzaro / Mantova): 1.05 / 1.33
Defence rating (Catanzaro / Mantova): 1.18 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Catanzaro vs Mantova score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1 4.6% 10.3% 7.9% 4.5% 2.8% 2 4.9% 8.3% 7.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3 2.9% 4.9% 4.2% 2.4% 1.5% 4+ 1.9% 3.3% 2.8% 1.6% 1.0%

Rows: Catanzaro goals. Columns: Mantova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Catanzaro vs Mantova goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 67%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Catanzaro vs Mantova

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Catanzaro	40%	2.49
	Draw	27%	3.74
	Mantova	33%	3.03
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67%	1.48
	Under 2.5	33%	3.07
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.45
	No	31%	3.20
Double chance	1X (Catanzaro or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Mantova)	60%	1.67
Handicap -1	Catanzaro win by 2+	21%	4.71
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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