Benevento vs Cesena Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Benevento vs Cesena preview

Benevento hosts Cesena with a 52% probability of winning according to the model 1X2, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the 58% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

However, Benevento's recent form shows two wins and four matches without a victory, while Cesena has drawn three of their last five games. The confidence grade is C, indicating that while Benevento has the edge, unexpected results could occur, especially if Cesena's defense performs better than expected.

Benevento vs Cesena: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Benevento	Draw	Cesena
Model	56%	24%	20%
Market	50%	26%	24%
Published	52%	26%	23%
Edge	+6%	-2%	-4%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.08.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Benevento below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Benevento vs Cesena odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Benevento, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.85Now 1.85 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Benevento	1.85	1.85	+0.00
Draw	3.54	3.53	-0.01
Cesena	3.96	3.96	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Benevento and Cesena expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.94Benevento

1.08Cesena

Total expected goals: 3.02
Attack rating (Benevento / Cesena): 1.15 / 0.91
Defence rating (Benevento / Cesena): 1.09 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Benevento vs Cesena score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 4.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1 8.5% 11.3% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 2 9.2% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 3 6.0% 6.4% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 4.5% 4.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: Benevento goals. Columns: Cesena goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Benevento vs Cesena goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 36%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Benevento vs Cesena

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Benevento	52%	1.93
	Draw	26%	3.88
	Cesena	23%	4.44
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.72
	Under 2.5	42%	2.38
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.74
	No	43%	2.35
Double chance	1X (Benevento or draw)	77%	1.29
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Cesena)	48%	2.07
Handicap -1	Benevento win by 2+	34%	2.95
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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