Sudtirol vs Sampdoria preview
In the match between Sudtirol and Sampdoria, the 1X2 probabilities show Sudtirol at 44% to win, while Sampdoria sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% chance according to our model. Sudtirol has an expected goals figure of 1.67, significantly higher than Sampdoria's 0.63.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Sudtirol's last five matches show 2 wins and 3 draws, while Sampdoria has struggled with 1 win and 4 losses. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 41%, and both teams to score is at 39%. These figures suggest a low-scoring game, but any unexpected performance from Sampdoria could change the dynamics.
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria: model vs market
| Source | Sudtirol | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 26% | 13% |
| Market | 38% | 30% | 33% |
| Published | 44% | 29% | 28% |
| Edge | +24% | -4% | -20% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sudtirol below the model: +23.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sudtirol and Sampdoria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (Sudtirol / Sampdoria)
- 0.88 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Sudtirol / Sampdoria)
- 0.78 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sudtirol goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sudtirol vs Sampdoria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudtirol | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Sampdoria | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.55 |
| No | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sudtirol or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Sampdoria) | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sudtirol win by 2+ | 35% | 2.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sudtirol and Sampdoria recent form
Sudtirol
2W 3D 1L
Sampdoria
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sudtirol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Sampdoria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sudtirol at home only, Sampdoria away only.
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sudtirol 1 · draws 0 · Sampdoria 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Sampdoria | 1-0 | Sudtirol | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-08-31 | Sudtirol | 3-1 | Sampdoria | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus 2026-10-23
- Cremonese v Juve Stabia — match page 2026-10-24
- Virtus Entella vs Mantova 2026-10-24
- Avellino v Padova — match page 2026-10-24
- Modena vs Cesena 2026-10-24
- Catanzaro vs Ascoli — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Sudtirol, previous: Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol: odds and pick
- Sampdoria, previous: Sampdoria – Arezzo, 2026-10-18