Padova vs Sudtirol preview
In the fixture between Padova and Sudtirol, the 1X2 probabilities show Padova at 37%, a draw at 34%, and Sudtirol at 30%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Padova's expected goals stand at 1.05, while Sudtirol's is slightly lower at 0.92.
Padova's recent form includes three losses in their last five matches, while Sudtirol has recorded two wins in the same period. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals are at 32%, and both teams to score is at 41%. These factors could influence the outcome, particularly if either team improves their scoring efficiency or if the match ends in a draw.
Padova vs Sudtirol: model vs market
| Source | Padova | Draw | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 31% | 31% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Padova vs Sudtirol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Padova, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | 2.30 | 2.37 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.24 | +0.04 |
| Sudtirol | 3.06 | 3.00 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Padova and Sudtirol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.83
- Attack rating (Padova / Sudtirol)
- 0.79 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Padova / Sudtirol)
- 0.95 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Padova vs Sudtirol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Padova goals. Columns: Sudtirol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Padova vs Sudtirol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Padova vs Sudtirol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Sudtirol | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.70 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Padova or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Sudtirol) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Padova win by 2+ | 14% | 7.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Padova and Sudtirol recent form
Padova
2W 0D 4L
Sudtirol
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Padova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Sudtirol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Padova at home only, Sudtirol away only.
Padova vs Sudtirol head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Padova 2 · draws 5 · Sudtirol 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Sudtirol | 3-0 | Padova | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-11-01 | Padova | 1-1 | Sudtirol | Italy Serie B |
| 2022-04-16 | Sudtirol | 0-0 | Padova | Serie C - Girone A |
| 2022-04-06 | Sudtirol | 0-1 | Padova | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| 2022-03-09 | Padova | 0-0 | Sudtirol | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| 2021-12-12 | Padova | 0-0 | Sudtirol | Serie C - Girone A |
| 2021-02-21 | Sudtirol | 1-1 | Padova | Serie C - Girone B |
| 2020-10-25 | Padova | 2-0 | Sudtirol | Serie C - Girone B |
| 2019-11-10 | Padova | 0-1 | Sudtirol | Serie C - Girone B |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Benevento vs Catanzaro 2026-10-27
- Ascoli v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-27
- Cesena vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Virtus Entella vs Avellino 2026-10-27
- Vicenza Virtus vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mantova vs Cremonese 2026-10-27
- Pisa v Palermo — match page 2026-10-28
- Juve Stabia vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Padova, previous: Avellino vs Padova prediction
- Padova, next: Catanzaro vs Padova prediction
- Sudtirol, previous: Sudtirol vs Sampdoria: odds and pick
- Sudtirol, next: Sudtirol vs Cesena: odds and pick