Sudtirol vs Cesena preview
In the match between Sudtirol and Cesena, the 1X2 probabilities show Sudtirol at 54%, while Cesena is at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 16% chance. Sudtirol has an expected goals figure of 1.45, compared to Cesena's 0.68, indicating a stronger attacking potential.
However, recent form could affect the outcome. Sudtirol's last five matches include two draws and three losses, while Cesena has not won in their last six games, with four draws. Both teams to score has a 39% chance, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 36%, suggesting a low-scoring match is more likely.
Sudtirol vs Cesena: model vs market
| Source | Sudtirol | Draw | Cesena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sudtirol and Cesena expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Sudtirol / Cesena)
- 0.80 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Sudtirol / Cesena)
- 0.85 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sudtirol vs Cesena score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sudtirol goals. Columns: Cesena goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sudtirol vs Cesena goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sudtirol vs Cesena
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudtirol | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Cesena | 17% | 6.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.56 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sudtirol or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Cesena) | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sudtirol win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sudtirol and Cesena recent form
Sudtirol
1W 3D 2L
Cesena
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sudtirol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Cesena away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sudtirol at home only, Cesena away only.
Sudtirol vs Cesena head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sudtirol 0 · draws 1 · Cesena 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Cesena | 1-1 | Sudtirol | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-10-25 | Sudtirol | 0-1 | Cesena | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Cremonese v Benevento — match page 2026-10-31
- Modena vs Mantova — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Catanzaro v Padova — match page 2026-10-31
- Sampdoria v Virtus Entella — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Sudtirol, previous: Padova vs Sudtirol: odds and pick
- Cesena, previous: Cesena vs Empoli: odds and pick