Pisa vs Sudtirol preview
In the upcoming match between Pisa and Sudtirol, the 1X2 probabilities show Pisa at 48%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 10%. Pisa's expected goals are 1.61, while Sudtirol's are lower at 1.09. This suggests Pisa may have the edge in this fixture.
However, the match could deviate from the prediction. Both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a reasonable chance that Sudtirol could find the net. Additionally, there is a 50% probability of Over 2.5 goals, which means the match could also see more than two goals. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain.
Pisa vs Sudtirol: model vs market
| Source | Pisa | Draw | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Pisa vs Sudtirol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pisa, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa | 1.69 | 1.57 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 4.03 | +0.43 |
| Sudtirol | 4.88 | 5.55 | +0.67 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pisa and Sudtirol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Pisa / Sudtirol)
- 1.13 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Pisa / Sudtirol)
- 1.28 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pisa vs Sudtirol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pisa goals. Columns: Sudtirol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pisa vs Sudtirol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pisa vs Sudtirol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pisa | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Sudtirol | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pisa or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Sudtirol) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pisa win by 2+ | 22% | 4.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pisa and Sudtirol recent form
Pisa
2W 3D 1L
Sudtirol
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pisa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sudtirol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pisa at home only, Sudtirol away only.
Pisa vs Sudtirol head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Pisa 2 · draws 2 · Sudtirol 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-09 | Pisa | 3-3 | Sudtirol | Serie B |
| 2024-10-19 | Sudtirol | 1-2 | Pisa | Serie B |
| 2024-05-05 | Pisa | 2-2 | Sudtirol | Serie B |
| 2023-11-11 | Sudtirol | 1-2 | Pisa | Serie B |
| 2023-02-04 | Pisa | 0-1 | Sudtirol | Serie B |
| 2022-09-04 | Sudtirol | 2-1 | Pisa | Serie B |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Ascoli vs Palermo 2026-11-06
- Cesena v Catanzaro — match page 2026-11-07
- Juve Stabia v Arezzo — match page 2026-11-07
- Padova vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Mantova vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Benevento vs Avellino — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Virtus Entella vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Carrarese vs Sampdoria 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Pisa, previous: Avellino vs Pisa prediction
- Sudtirol, previous: Sudtirol vs Cesena: odds and pick