Padova vs Empoli preview
In the fixture between Padova and Empoli, Padova has a 56% chance to win, while Empoli stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% probability. Padova's expected goals are 1.55 compared to Empoli's 0.73, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Padova.
However, the prediction could be challenged if both teams manage to score, as our model shows a 42% chance for "both teams to score." Recent form also suggests that Padova has had mixed results with W-W-L-L-L-W, while Empoli is struggling with L-L-D-L-L-L. These factors could influence the outcome of the match.
Padova vs Empoli: model vs market
| Source | Padova | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 29% |
| Published | 45% | 28% | 26% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Padova below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Padova vs Empoli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Padova, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | 2.02 | 2.20 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.30 | -0.05 |
| Empoli | 3.56 | 3.20 | -0.36 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Padova and Empoli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Padova / Empoli)
- 0.88 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Padova / Empoli)
- 0.87 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Padova vs Empoli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Padova goals. Columns: Empoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Padova vs Empoli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Padova vs Empoli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 45% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Empoli | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Padova or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Empoli) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Padova win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Padova and Empoli recent form
Padova
2W 1D 3L
Empoli
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Padova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Empoli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Padova at home only, Empoli away only.
Padova vs Empoli head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Padova 1 · draws 0 · Empoli 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Padova | 1-0 | Empoli | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-08-23 | Empoli | 3-1 | Padova | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Ascoli vs Palermo 2026-11-06
- Cesena v Catanzaro — match page 2026-11-07
- Pisa vs Sudtirol 2026-11-07
- Juve Stabia v Arezzo — match page 2026-11-07
- Mantova vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Benevento vs Avellino — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Virtus Entella vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Carrarese vs Sampdoria 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Padova, previous: Catanzaro vs Padova prediction
- Empoli, previous: Empoli – Juve Stabia, 2026-11-01