Cesena vs Catanzaro preview
In the Serie B fixture between Cesena and Catanzaro, the 1X2 probabilities show Cesena at 49% to win, while both a draw and a Catanzaro win sit at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance, and there is a 58% probability of Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score.
Cesena's expected goals are 1.79, compared to Catanzaro's 1.23. Recent form indicates Cesena has drawn three of their last six matches, while Catanzaro has only one win in their last six. This context suggests that while Cesena is favored, a tight match could lead to unexpected results, especially considering their recent performances.
Cesena vs Catanzaro: model vs market
| Source | Cesena | Draw | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cesena vs Catanzaro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cesena, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.49 | -0.01 |
| Catanzaro | 3.27 | 3.31 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cesena and Catanzaro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Cesena / Catanzaro)
- 0.83 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Cesena / Catanzaro)
- 1.14 / 1.44
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cesena vs Catanzaro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cesena goals. Columns: Catanzaro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cesena vs Catanzaro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cesena vs Catanzaro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cesena | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Catanzaro | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cesena or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Catanzaro) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cesena win by 2+ | 28% | 3.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cesena and Catanzaro recent form
Cesena
1W 3D 2L
Catanzaro
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cesena at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-0
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Catanzaro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cesena at home only, Catanzaro away only.
Cesena vs Catanzaro head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cesena 2 · draws 0 · Catanzaro 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Cesena | 3-1 | Catanzaro | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-12-27 | Catanzaro | 2-0 | Cesena | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-05-17 | Catanzaro | 1-0 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 2025-02-01 | Catanzaro | 4-2 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 2024-08-28 | Cesena | 2-0 | Catanzaro | Serie B |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Ascoli vs Palermo 2026-11-06
- Pisa vs Sudtirol 2026-11-07
- Juve Stabia v Arezzo — match page 2026-11-07
- Padova vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Mantova vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Benevento vs Avellino — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Virtus Entella vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Carrarese vs Sampdoria 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Cesena, previous: Sudtirol vs Cesena: odds and pick
- Catanzaro, previous: Catanzaro vs Padova prediction