Virtus Entella vs Modena preview
In the match between Virtus Entella and Modena, the 1X2 probabilities show Modena at 39%, slightly ahead of Virtus Entella at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.13 for Virtus Entella and 1.28 for Modena.
Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, if Virtus Entella can improve their recent form, which includes only 1 win in their last 5 matches, they could challenge Modena's current momentum, where they have secured 4 wins in their last 6 games.
Virtus Entella vs Modena: model vs market
| Source | Virtus Entella | Draw | Modena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Virtus Entella vs Modena odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Modena, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella | 3.00 | 2.91 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.23 | -0.01 |
| Modena | 2.38 | 2.40 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Virtus Entella and Modena expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Virtus Entella / Modena)
- 0.86 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Virtus Entella / Modena)
- 0.96 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Virtus Entella vs Modena score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Virtus Entella goals. Columns: Modena goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Virtus Entella vs Modena goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Virtus Entella vs Modena
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Virtus Entella | 32% | 3.13 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Modena | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Virtus Entella or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Modena) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win by 2+ | 18% | 5.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Virtus Entella and Modena recent form
Virtus Entella
1W 3D 2L
Modena
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Virtus Entella at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Modena away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Virtus Entella at home only, Modena away only.
Virtus Entella vs Modena head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Virtus Entella 1 · draws 0 · Modena 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Virtus Entella | 2-1 | Modena | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-10-05 | Modena | 2-0 | Virtus Entella | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cesena v Catanzaro — match page 2026-11-07
- Pisa vs Sudtirol 2026-11-07
- Juve Stabia v Arezzo — match page 2026-11-07
- Padova vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Mantova vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Benevento vs Avellino — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Carrarese vs Sampdoria 2026-11-08
- Vicenza Virtus v Cremonese — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Virtus Entella, previous: Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella: odds and pick
- Modena, previous: Modena v Mantova analysis