Modena vs Mantova preview
In the Serie B match between Modena and Mantova, the 1X2 probabilities favor Modena at 51%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 62%, suggesting a high-scoring game could be on the cards.
However, Modena's recent form shows a mix of results with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Mantova has a slightly better record with 3 wins and 2 draws in the same period. This inconsistency could impact the expected goals, with Modena at 1.91 and Mantova at 1.27, potentially leading to a different outcome than predicted.
Modena vs Mantova: model vs market
| Source | Modena | Draw | Mantova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.28.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Modena and Mantova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (Modena / Mantova)
- 1.22 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Modena / Mantova)
- 0.94 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Modena vs Mantova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Modena goals. Columns: Mantova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Modena vs Mantova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Modena vs Mantova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Mantova | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Modena or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Mantova) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win by 2+ | 29% | 3.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Modena and Mantova recent form
Modena
3W 1D 2L
Mantova
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Modena at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mantova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Modena at home only, Mantova away only.
Modena vs Mantova head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Modena 2 · draws 0 · Mantova 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Modena | 2-1 | Mantova | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-09-20 | Mantova | 1-3 | Modena | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Cremonese v Benevento — match page 2026-10-31
- Sudtirol vs Cesena 2026-10-31
- Catanzaro v Padova — match page 2026-10-31
- Sampdoria v Virtus Entella — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Modena, previous: Vicenza Virtus – Modena, 2026-10-27
- Mantova, previous: Mantova v Cremonese analysis