Cremonese vs Benevento preview
Cremonese faces Benevento with a 32% chance of winning compared to Benevento's 39%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Cremonese's expected goals stand at 1.22, while Benevento's is slightly higher at 1.36.
Both teams to score has a 54% probability, indicating a good chance for goals from both sides. However, the match could deviate from this prediction if either team struggles offensively, as indicated by Cremonese's recent form of L-L-D-D-D-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Cremonese vs Benevento: model vs market
| Source | Cremonese | Draw | Benevento |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 28% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cremonese and Benevento expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Cremonese / Benevento)
- 0.81 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Cremonese / Benevento)
- 1.01 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cremonese vs Benevento score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cremonese goals. Columns: Benevento goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cremonese vs Benevento goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cremonese vs Benevento
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cremonese | 26% | 3.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Benevento | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cremonese or draw) | 55% | 1.83 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Benevento) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benevento win by 2+ | 23% | 4.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Cremonese and Benevento recent form
Cremonese
1W 3D 2L
Benevento
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cremonese at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benevento away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cremonese at home only, Benevento away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Modena vs Mantova — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sudtirol vs Cesena 2026-10-31
- Catanzaro v Padova — match page 2026-10-31
- Sampdoria v Virtus Entella — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Cremonese, previous: Mantova v Cremonese analysis
- Benevento, previous: Benevento – Catanzaro, 2026-10-27