Arezzo vs Ascoli preview
In the fixture between Arezzo and Ascoli, the 1X2 probabilities show Ascoli at 59%, compared to Arezzo's 18%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-2, which aligns with Ascoli's expected goals of 1.97 against Arezzo's 0.99.
Arezzo's recent form includes 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Ascoli has won 4 out of their last 6 games. The model predicts a 57% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score. However, if Arezzo can improve their attacking output, the expected goals could shift, potentially impacting the match outcome.
Arezzo vs Ascoli: model vs market
| Source | Arezzo | Draw | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 23% | 59% |
| Market | 34% | 29% | 36% |
| Published | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Edge | -4% | -1% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ascoli below our published probability: +5.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arezzo vs Ascoli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ascoli, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arezzo | 2.70 | 2.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.15 | +0.00 |
| Ascoli | 2.55 | 2.55 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arezzo and Ascoli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Arezzo / Ascoli)
- 0.81 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Arezzo / Ascoli)
- 1.31 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arezzo vs Ascoli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arezzo goals. Columns: Ascoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arezzo vs Ascoli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arezzo vs Ascoli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arezzo | 30% | 3.32 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Ascoli | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arezzo or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Ascoli) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win by 2+ | 36% | 2.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arezzo and Ascoli recent form
Arezzo
2W 1D 3L
Ascoli
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arezzo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ascoli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arezzo at home only, Ascoli away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Cremonese v Benevento — match page 2026-10-31
- Modena vs Mantova — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Catanzaro v Padova — match page 2026-10-31
- Sampdoria v Virtus Entella — match page 2026-10-31
- Empoli vs Juve Stabia 2026-11-01
- Avellino vs Pisa 2026-11-01
- Verona vs Carrarese — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Arezzo, previous: Carrarese vs Arezzo prediction
- Ascoli, previous: Ascoli v Sampdoria analysis