Catanzaro vs Padova preview
In the fixture between Catanzaro and Padova, both teams have a 36% chance of winning according to our model, with a predicted scoreline of 1-2 (8%). The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%, while both teams to score is at 58%. This indicates a competitive match with potential for goals.
Recent form shows Catanzaro with 1 win in their last 6 matches (L-D-L-L-W-L) and Padova also struggling, with 2 wins in their last 6 (W-L-L-L-W-L). The expected goals are closely matched, with Catanzaro at 1.38 and Padova at 1.40. A draw is a possibility, but the recent inconsistencies of both teams could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Catanzaro vs Padova: model vs market
| Source | Catanzaro | Draw | Padova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Catanzaro and Padova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Catanzaro / Padova)
- 1.00 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Catanzaro / Padova)
- 1.59 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Catanzaro vs Padova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Catanzaro goals. Columns: Padova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Catanzaro vs Padova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Catanzaro vs Padova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Catanzaro | 36% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Padova | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Catanzaro or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Padova) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Padova win by 2+ | 17% | 5.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Catanzaro and Padova recent form
Catanzaro
1W 1D 4L
Padova
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Catanzaro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Padova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Catanzaro at home only, Padova away only.
Catanzaro vs Padova head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Catanzaro 1 · draws 0 · Padova 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Padova | 1-3 | Catanzaro | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-10-19 | Catanzaro | 0-1 | Padova | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Cremonese v Benevento — match page 2026-10-31
- Modena vs Mantova — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sudtirol vs Cesena 2026-10-31
- Sampdoria v Virtus Entella — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Catanzaro, previous: Benevento – Catanzaro, 2026-10-27
- Padova, previous: Padova vs Sudtirol: odds and pick