Avellino vs Pisa preview
In the fixture between Avellino and Pisa, the 1X2 probabilities show Avellino at 34%, a draw at 29%, and Pisa at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 7% chance. Both teams to score has a 57% probability, and there’s a 53% chance for Over 2.5 goals.
Avellino's expected goals stand at 1.62, while Pisa's is lower at 1.17. Avellino's recent form includes two wins and three draws, while Pisa has two wins and four draws/losses in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Avellino vs Pisa: model vs market
| Source | Avellino | Draw | Pisa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Published | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Avellino vs Pisa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pisa, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino | 3.07 | 3.07 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Pisa | 2.29 | 2.29 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Avellino and Pisa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Avellino / Pisa)
- 0.97 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Avellino / Pisa)
- 0.95 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Avellino vs Pisa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Avellino goals. Columns: Pisa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Avellino vs Pisa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Avellino vs Pisa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Pisa | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Avellino or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Pisa) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pisa win by 2+ | 11% | 9.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Avellino and Pisa recent form
Avellino
2W 2D 2L
Pisa
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Avellino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pisa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Avellino at home only, Pisa away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Cremonese v Benevento — match page 2026-10-31
- Modena vs Mantova — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Catanzaro v Padova — match page 2026-10-31
- Sampdoria v Virtus Entella — match page 2026-10-31
- Empoli vs Juve Stabia 2026-11-01
- Arezzo v Ascoli — match page 2026-11-01
- Verona vs Carrarese — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Avellino, previous: Virtus Entella vs Avellino prediction
- Pisa, previous: Pisa – Palermo, 2026-10-28