Benevento vs Avellino preview
Benevento faces Avellino with a 48% chance of winning compared to Avellino's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 10% probability. Benevento's expected goals stand at 1.55, while Avellino's are lower at 1.04.
Both teams to score is predicted at 52%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, if Benevento's defense falters or Avellino improves their attacking play, the outcome could differ from expectations. The recent form shows Benevento with three wins in their last five matches, while Avellino has only one win in the same period, adding another layer to the analysis.
Benevento vs Avellino: model vs market
| Source | Benevento | Draw | Avellino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Benevento vs Avellino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benevento, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento | 1.80 | 1.85 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.54 | -0.01 |
| Avellino | 4.20 | 4.04 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Benevento and Avellino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Benevento / Avellino)
- 1.14 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Benevento / Avellino)
- 0.98 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Benevento vs Avellino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Benevento goals. Columns: Avellino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Benevento vs Avellino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Benevento vs Avellino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Avellino | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Benevento or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Avellino) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benevento win by 2+ | 22% | 4.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Benevento and Avellino recent form
Benevento
3W 2D 1L
Avellino
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Benevento at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avellino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Benevento at home only, Avellino away only.
Benevento vs Avellino head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Benevento 1 · draws 2 · Avellino 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-30 | Avellino | 2-1 | Benevento | Serie C - Girone C |
| 2024-11-17 | Benevento | 2-2 | Avellino | Serie C - Girone C |
| 2024-04-15 | Avellino | 1-0 | Benevento | Serie C - Girone C |
| 2023-12-10 | Benevento | 0-1 | Avellino | Serie C - Girone C |
| 2017-05-01 | Benevento | 2-1 | Avellino | Serie B |
| 2016-12-10 | Avellino | 1-1 | Benevento | Serie B |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Ascoli vs Palermo 2026-11-06
- Cesena v Catanzaro — match page 2026-11-07
- Pisa vs Sudtirol 2026-11-07
- Juve Stabia v Arezzo — match page 2026-11-07
- Padova vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Mantova vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Virtus Entella vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Carrarese vs Sampdoria 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Benevento, previous: Cremonese v Benevento analysis
- Avellino, previous: Avellino vs Pisa prediction