Carrarese vs Sampdoria preview
In the fixture between Carrarese and Sampdoria, the 1X2 probabilities show Carrarese at 40% to win, while both teams have a 30% chance of a draw or Sampdoria winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Carrarese, with a 13% probability.
Carrarese has an expected goals figure of 1.32 compared to Sampdoria's 0.91. However, the possibility of both teams scoring stands at 45%, and there is a 39% chance of Over 2.5 goals being scored. Recent form shows Carrarese with mixed results, while Sampdoria has won 2 of their last 6 matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Carrarese vs Sampdoria: model vs market
| Source | Carrarese | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 31% | 24% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Carrarese vs Sampdoria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Carrarese, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | 2.45 | 2.42 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.19 | 3.23 | +0.03 |
| Sampdoria | 2.88 | 2.88 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Carrarese and Sampdoria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Carrarese / Sampdoria)
- 0.76 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Carrarese / Sampdoria)
- 1.08 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Carrarese vs Sampdoria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Carrarese goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Carrarese vs Sampdoria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Carrarese vs Sampdoria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrarese | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Sampdoria | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Carrarese or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Sampdoria) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Carrarese win by 2+ | 22% | 4.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Carrarese and Sampdoria recent form
Carrarese
3W 0D 3L
Sampdoria
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Carrarese at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Sampdoria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Carrarese at home only, Sampdoria away only.
Carrarese vs Sampdoria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Carrarese 1 · draws 0 · Sampdoria 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Carrarese | 2-0 | Sampdoria | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-12-07 | Sampdoria | 3-2 | Carrarese | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cesena v Catanzaro — match page 2026-11-07
- Pisa vs Sudtirol 2026-11-07
- Juve Stabia v Arezzo — match page 2026-11-07
- Padova vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Mantova vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Benevento vs Avellino — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Virtus Entella vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Vicenza Virtus v Cremonese — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Carrarese, previous: Verona vs Carrarese prediction
- Sampdoria, previous: Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella: odds and pick