Ascoli vs Palermo preview
Ascoli faces Palermo with a 37% chance of winning compared to 36% for Palermo. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.80 for Ascoli and 1.28 for Palermo. Both teams to score has a 61% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 60%.
Ascoli's recent form shows 3 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches, while Palermo has been stronger with 6 consecutive wins. The head-to-head record favors Palermo with 5 wins out of the last 8 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Factors such as a sudden change in form or key player performances could impact the outcome.
Ascoli vs Palermo: model vs market
| Source | Ascoli | Draw | Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Published | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.28.
- The market prices Ascoli below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.94, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ascoli vs Palermo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ascoli, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 2.70 | 2.84 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.34 | -0.11 |
| Palermo | 2.50 | 2.40 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ascoli and Palermo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Ascoli / Palermo)
- 1.22 / 1.68
- Defence rating (Ascoli / Palermo)
- 0.69 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ascoli vs Palermo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ascoli goals. Columns: Palermo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ascoli vs Palermo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ascoli vs Palermo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Palermo | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ascoli or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Palermo) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win by 2+ | 27% | 3.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ascoli and Palermo recent form
Ascoli
3W 3D 0L
Palermo
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ascoli at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Palermo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ascoli at home only, Palermo away only.
Ascoli vs Palermo head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Ascoli 1 · draws 2 · Palermo 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-05 | Palermo | 2-2 | Ascoli | Serie B |
| 2023-09-16 | Ascoli | 0-1 | Palermo | Serie B |
| 2023-01-29 | Ascoli | 1-2 | Palermo | Serie B |
| 2022-08-27 | Palermo | 2-3 | Ascoli | Serie B |
| 2019-05-04 | Ascoli | 1-2 | Palermo | Serie B |
| 2018-12-27 | Palermo | 3-0 | Ascoli | Serie B |
| 2018-02-27 | Palermo | 4-1 | Ascoli | Serie B |
| 2017-09-30 | Ascoli | 0-0 | Palermo | Serie B |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cesena v Catanzaro — match page 2026-11-07
- Pisa vs Sudtirol 2026-11-07
- Juve Stabia v Arezzo — match page 2026-11-07
- Padova vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Mantova vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Benevento vs Avellino — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Virtus Entella vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Carrarese vs Sampdoria 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Ascoli, previous: Arezzo – Ascoli, 2026-11-01
- Palermo, previous: Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus: odds and pick