Empoli vs Juve Stabia preview
In the upcoming match between Empoli and Juve Stabia, the 1X2 probabilities show Empoli at 37%, a draw at 29%, and Juve Stabia at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, which occurs 10% of the time. Empoli's expected goals stand at 0.98, while Juve Stabia has a higher figure at 1.21, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.
Empoli's recent form is concerning with 4 losses in their last 5 matches, while Juve Stabia has won 2 of their last 5. The model suggests a 37% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. If Empoli can improve their attacking output, the match could deviate from the expected low-scoring scenario.
Empoli vs Juve Stabia: model vs market
| Source | Empoli | Draw | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 32% | 40% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Empoli vs Juve Stabia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Empoli, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | 2.36 | 2.36 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Juve Stabia | 2.92 | 2.92 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Empoli and Juve Stabia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.19
- Attack rating (Empoli / Juve Stabia)
- 0.74 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Empoli / Juve Stabia)
- 1.16 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Empoli vs Juve Stabia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Empoli goals. Columns: Juve Stabia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Empoli vs Juve Stabia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Empoli vs Juve Stabia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Empoli | 37% | 2.73 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Juve Stabia | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Empoli or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Juve Stabia) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Empoli win by 2+ | 11% | 9.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Empoli and Juve Stabia recent form
Empoli
1W 1D 4L
Juve Stabia
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Empoli at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juve Stabia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Empoli at home only, Juve Stabia away only.
Empoli vs Juve Stabia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Empoli 0 · draws 0 · Juve Stabia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Empoli | 1-2 | Juve Stabia | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-12-13 | Juve Stabia | 2-0 | Empoli | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Cremonese v Benevento — match page 2026-10-31
- Modena vs Mantova — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Catanzaro v Padova — match page 2026-10-31
- Sampdoria v Virtus Entella — match page 2026-10-31
- Avellino vs Pisa 2026-11-01
- Arezzo v Ascoli — match page 2026-11-01
- Verona vs Carrarese — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Empoli, previous: Cesena vs Empoli: odds and pick
- Juve Stabia, previous: Juve Stabia v Verona analysis