Virtus Entella vs Avellino preview
In the match between Virtus Entella and Avellino, the 1X2 probabilities show Virtus Entella at 48%, while Avellino sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. This suggests a close contest, but the recent form indicates that Avellino has a slight edge, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Virtus Entella's 2.
Both teams to score stands at 52%, which means there is a reasonable chance that both teams will find the net. However, if Virtus Entella's defense holds strong or if Avellino struggles to convert chances, this could lead to a lower-scoring game than expected. The expected goals also favor Virtus Entella at 1.54 compared to Avellino's 1.03.
Virtus Entella vs Avellino: model vs market
| Source | Virtus Entella | Draw | Avellino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 47% | 29% | 25% |
| Published | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.97.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Virtus Entella vs Avellino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Virtus Entella, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella | 2.05 | 2.00 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Avellino | 3.56 | 3.78 | +0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Virtus Entella and Avellino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Virtus Entella / Avellino)
- 0.94 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Virtus Entella / Avellino)
- 0.90 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Virtus Entella vs Avellino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Virtus Entella goals. Columns: Avellino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Virtus Entella vs Avellino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Virtus Entella vs Avellino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Virtus Entella | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Avellino | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.15 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Virtus Entella or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Avellino) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Virtus Entella win by 2+ | 20% | 4.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Virtus Entella and Avellino recent form
Virtus Entella
2W 3D 1L
Avellino
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Virtus Entella at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avellino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Virtus Entella at home only, Avellino away only.
Virtus Entella vs Avellino head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Virtus Entella 1 · draws 4 · Avellino 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Virtus Entella | 1-2 | Avellino | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-09-27 | Avellino | 2-0 | Virtus Entella | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-05-10 | Virtus Entella | 1-1 | Avellino | Serie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals |
| 2018-04-14 | Virtus Entella | 1-1 | Avellino | Serie B |
| 2017-11-11 | Avellino | 0-0 | Virtus Entella | Serie B |
| 2017-01-28 | Avellino | 2-2 | Virtus Entella | Serie B |
| 2016-09-04 | Virtus Entella | 2-0 | Avellino | Serie B |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Benevento vs Catanzaro 2026-10-27
- Ascoli v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-27
- Cesena vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Padova vs Sudtirol 2026-10-27
- Vicenza Virtus vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mantova vs Cremonese 2026-10-27
- Pisa v Palermo — match page 2026-10-28
- Juve Stabia vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Virtus Entella, previous: Virtus Entella vs Mantova: odds and pick
- Virtus Entella, next: Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella: odds and pick
- Avellino, previous: Avellino vs Padova prediction