Benevento vs Catanzaro preview
In the match between Benevento and Catanzaro, the 1X2 probabilities show Benevento at 62% to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. Benevento's expected goals stand at 2.33, while Catanzaro's are at 1.17, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Benevento's last six matches include three wins and two draws, while Catanzaro has struggled with only one win in their last six games. Both teams to score stands at 63%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 68%, suggesting a high-scoring game could be on the cards, but Catanzaro's form may lead to a different result.
Benevento vs Catanzaro: model vs market
| Source | Benevento | Draw | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 22% |
| Published | 61% | 20% | 18% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.07 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Benevento below our published probability: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Benevento vs Catanzaro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benevento, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento | 1.96 | 1.68 | -0.28 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 4.15 | +0.45 |
| Catanzaro | 3.70 | 4.37 | +0.67 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Benevento and Catanzaro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.10
- Attack rating (Benevento / Catanzaro)
- 1.33 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Benevento / Catanzaro)
- 0.92 / 1.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Benevento vs Catanzaro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Benevento goals. Columns: Catanzaro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Benevento vs Catanzaro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Benevento vs Catanzaro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| Catanzaro | 18% | 5.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Benevento or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Catanzaro) | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benevento win by 2+ | 59% | 1.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Benevento and Catanzaro recent form
Benevento
4W 1D 1L
Catanzaro
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Benevento at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Catanzaro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Benevento at home only, Catanzaro away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Ascoli v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-27
- Cesena vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Virtus Entella vs Avellino 2026-10-27
- Padova vs Sudtirol 2026-10-27
- Vicenza Virtus vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mantova vs Cremonese 2026-10-27
- Pisa v Palermo — match page 2026-10-28
- Juve Stabia vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Benevento, previous: Arezzo – Benevento, 2026-10-24
- Benevento, next: Cremonese v Benevento analysis
- Catanzaro, previous: Catanzaro vs Ascoli prediction
- Catanzaro, next: Catanzaro vs Padova prediction