Mantova vs Cremonese preview
In the match between Mantova and Cremonese, the 1X2 probabilities show Mantova at 54%, while Cremonese stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. The expected goals for Mantova is 1.87, compared to Cremonese's 1.11.
Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 57%. However, Mantova's recent form includes two losses in their last six matches, which could affect their performance. Cremonese has shown some improvement with two wins in their last six, but they also have a tendency to draw. These factors could lead to different outcomes than predicted.
Mantova vs Cremonese: model vs market
| Source | Mantova | Draw | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mantova below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Mantova vs Cremonese odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mantova, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova | 2.43 | 2.29 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Cremonese | 2.75 | 3.05 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mantova and Cremonese expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Mantova / Cremonese)
- 1.22 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Mantova / Cremonese)
- 1.07 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mantova vs Cremonese score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mantova goals. Columns: Cremonese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mantova vs Cremonese goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mantova vs Cremonese
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Cremonese | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mantova or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Cremonese) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mantova win by 2+ | 32% | 3.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mantova and Cremonese recent form
Mantova
3W 2D 1L
Cremonese
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mantova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cremonese away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mantova at home only, Cremonese away only.
Mantova vs Cremonese head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Mantova 1 · draws 0 · Cremonese 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-25 | Cremonese | 4-2 | Mantova | Serie B |
| 2024-11-09 | Mantova | 1-0 | Cremonese | Serie B |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Benevento vs Catanzaro 2026-10-27
- Ascoli v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-27
- Cesena vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Virtus Entella vs Avellino 2026-10-27
- Padova vs Sudtirol 2026-10-27
- Vicenza Virtus vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Pisa v Palermo — match page 2026-10-28
- Juve Stabia vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Mantova, previous: Virtus Entella vs Mantova: odds and pick
- Mantova, next: Modena v Mantova analysis
- Cremonese, previous: Cremonese – Juve Stabia, 2026-10-24
- Cremonese, next: Cremonese v Benevento analysis