Pisa vs Palermo preview
In the fixture between Pisa and Palermo, the 1X2 probabilities show Pisa at 37% and Palermo at 37%, with a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 6% chance of occurring. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals each have a 69% probability according to our model.
Pisa's expected goals are 1.50, while Palermo's are higher at 2.09. Recent form indicates Pisa has won 3 out of their last 6 matches, while Palermo has won 5 out of 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty. If either team underperforms or the match ends in a low-scoring draw, predictions could be affected.
Pisa vs Palermo: model vs market
| Source | Pisa | Draw | Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Published | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | -4% | -1% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Pisa vs Palermo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pisa, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa | 2.29 | 2.30 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.45 | +0.05 |
| Palermo | 2.92 | 2.96 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pisa and Palermo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Pisa / Palermo)
- 1.14 / 1.58
- Defence rating (Pisa / Palermo)
- 1.20 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pisa vs Palermo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pisa goals. Columns: Palermo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pisa vs Palermo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pisa vs Palermo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pisa | 37% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Palermo | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pisa or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Palermo) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pisa win by 2+ | 12% | 8.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pisa and Palermo recent form
Pisa
3W 1D 2L
Palermo
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pisa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palermo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pisa at home only, Palermo away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Ascoli v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-27
- Cesena vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Virtus Entella vs Avellino 2026-10-27
- Padova vs Sudtirol 2026-10-27
- Vicenza Virtus vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mantova vs Cremonese 2026-10-27
- Juve Stabia vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Carrarese v Arezzo — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Pisa, previous: Verona vs Pisa: odds and pick
- Palermo, previous: Palermo v Carrarese analysis