Cesena vs Empoli preview
In the match between Cesena and Empoli, the 1X2 probabilities show Cesena at 43%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 11%. Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a balanced chance for goals from both sides.
However, Cesena's recent form is mixed with 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Empoli has struggled, winning only 1 of their last 6. This inconsistency could affect the expected goals, with Cesena at 1.38 and Empoli at 1.05. If Empoli improves their form, they could challenge Cesena's edge in this fixture.
Cesena vs Empoli: model vs market
| Source | Cesena | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cesena vs Empoli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cesena, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | 2.11 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.50 | +0.10 |
| Empoli | 3.26 | 3.50 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cesena and Empoli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Cesena / Empoli)
- 0.72 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Cesena / Empoli)
- 1.23 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cesena vs Empoli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cesena goals. Columns: Empoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cesena vs Empoli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cesena vs Empoli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cesena | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Empoli | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cesena or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Empoli) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cesena win by 2+ | 18% | 5.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cesena and Empoli recent form
Cesena
0W 4D 2L
Empoli
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cesena at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Empoli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cesena at home only, Empoli away only.
Cesena vs Empoli head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Cesena 1 · draws 2 · Empoli 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Empoli | 1-1 | Cesena | Italy Serie B |
| 2026-01-10 | Cesena | 0-1 | Empoli | Italy Serie B |
| 2018-04-17 | Cesena | 2-3 | Empoli | Serie B |
| 2017-11-18 | Empoli | 5-3 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 2016-11-29 | Empoli | 1-2 | Cesena | Coppa Italia |
| 2015-02-08 | Empoli | 2-0 | Cesena | Serie A |
| 2014-09-20 | Cesena | 2-2 | Empoli | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Benevento vs Catanzaro 2026-10-27
- Ascoli v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-27
- Virtus Entella vs Avellino 2026-10-27
- Padova vs Sudtirol 2026-10-27
- Vicenza Virtus vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mantova vs Cremonese 2026-10-27
- Pisa v Palermo — match page 2026-10-28
- Juve Stabia vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Cesena, previous: Modena v Cesena analysis
- Cesena, next: Sudtirol vs Cesena: odds and pick
- Empoli, previous: Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus prediction