Avellino vs Padova preview
In the upcoming match between Avellino and Padova, the 1X2 probabilities show Avellino at 46%, with a likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. Avellino's expected goals stand at 1.66, while Padova's is significantly lower at 0.85. This suggests a stronger offensive performance from Avellino.
However, the match could deviate from these predictions. Both teams to score is at 48%, indicating a reasonable chance that Padova could find the net. Additionally, Avellino's recent form includes two losses, which could affect their performance. Padova has struggled with three consecutive losses, but they did manage a win recently, showing potential for an upset.
Avellino vs Padova: model vs market
| Source | Avellino | Draw | Padova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Edge | +12% | -2% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Avellino below the model: +12.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Avellino and Padova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Avellino / Padova)
- 1.08 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Avellino / Padova)
- 1.01 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Avellino vs Padova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Avellino goals. Columns: Padova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Avellino vs Padova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Avellino vs Padova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Padova | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Avellino or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Padova) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Avellino win by 2+ | 31% | 3.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Avellino and Padova recent form
Avellino
3W 1D 2L
Padova
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Avellino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Padova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Avellino at home only, Padova away only.
Avellino vs Padova head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Avellino 1 · draws 1 · Padova 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Avellino | 1-0 | Padova | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-09-30 | Padova | 2-2 | Avellino | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus 2026-10-23
- Cremonese v Juve Stabia — match page 2026-10-24
- Virtus Entella vs Mantova 2026-10-24
- Modena vs Cesena 2026-10-24
- Sudtirol v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-24
- Catanzaro vs Ascoli — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Avellino, previous: Cesena – Avellino, 2026-10-18
- Padova, previous: Padova vs Virtus Entella prediction