Modena vs Cesena preview
In the Serie B fixture between Modena and Cesena, the 1X2 probabilities show Modena at 58%, Cesena at 19%, with a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Modena, which has an 11% chance according to our model. Modena has an expected goals figure of 1.89, while Cesena sits at 0.93, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Modena's last five matches show 2 wins and 3 losses, while Cesena has 1 win and 4 draws. Additionally, head-to-head results favor Cesena with 1 win and 1 draw in their last 2 encounters. The model suggests a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score, which could influence the match dynamics.
Modena vs Cesena: model vs market
| Source | Modena | Draw | Cesena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 19% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Modena and Cesena expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Modena / Cesena)
- 1.10 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Modena / Cesena)
- 1.04 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Modena vs Cesena score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Modena goals. Columns: Cesena goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Modena vs Cesena goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Modena vs Cesena
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Cesena | 19% | 5.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Modena or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Cesena) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win by 2+ | 35% | 2.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Modena and Cesena recent form
Modena
3W 1D 2L
Cesena
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Modena at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cesena away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Modena at home only, Cesena away only.
Modena vs Cesena head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Modena 0 · draws 1 · Cesena 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Modena | 0-0 | Cesena | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-11-28 | Cesena | 1-0 | Modena | Italy Serie B |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus 2026-10-23
- Cremonese v Juve Stabia — match page 2026-10-24
- Virtus Entella vs Mantova 2026-10-24
- Avellino v Padova — match page 2026-10-24
- Sudtirol v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-24
- Catanzaro vs Ascoli — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Modena, previous: Carrarese – Modena, 2026-10-17
- Cesena, previous: Cesena – Avellino, 2026-10-18