Updated

Italy Serie B · Matchday 8

Arezzo vs Benevento

· Stadio Città di Arezzo, Arezzo· Referee Francesco Fourneau

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Benevento to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ArezzoDrawBenevento

Arezzo vs Benevento: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceArezzoDrawBenevento
Model31%26%42%
Market30%30%41%
Published30%29%41%
Edge0%-1%0%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Arezzo vs Benevento odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Benevento, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 2.45Now 2.30 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Arezzo2.853.17+0.32
Draw3.163.16+0.00
Benevento2.452.30-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Arezzo and Benevento expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Arezzo
1.62Benevento
Total expected goals
2.97
Attack rating (Arezzo / Benevento)
0.90 / 1.22
Defence rating (Arezzo / Benevento)
1.20 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arezzo vs Benevento score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 7.2% 6.7% 3.6% 2.1% 1 5.8% 12.3% 9.1% 4.9% 2.9% 2 4.7% 7.6% 6.1% 3.3% 1.9% 3 2.1% 3.4% 2.8% 1.5% 0.9% 4+ 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Arezzo goals. Columns: Benevento goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arezzo vs Benevento goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arezzo vs Benevento

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Arezzo30%3.34
Draw29%3.46
Benevento41%2.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.33
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.65
No39%2.54
Double chance1X (Arezzo or draw)59%1.70
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Benevento)70%1.43
Handicap -1Benevento win by 2+22%4.45
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Arezzo and Benevento recent form

Arezzo 2W 1D 3L
Benevento 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Arezzo at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Benevento away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Arezzo at home only, Benevento away only.

Expected lineups

Arezzo lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 14 A. Nunziante
  2. 37 S. Righetti
  3. 4 M. Coppolaro
  4. 13 M. Gilli
  5. 6 A. Renzi
  6. 24 L. Chierico
  7. 21 C. Tavernelli
  8. 17 A. Ioniţă
  9. 16 Mattia Sala
  10. 30 A. Arena
  11. 9 A. Cerri

Bench: M. Mena, Giuseppe Kevin Leone, S. Mawuli, E. Pattarello, L. Mancuso, A. Cagnano, P. Cianci, Gennaro Iaccarino, A. Seculin

Benevento lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 26 G. Vannucchi
  2. 20 P. Beruatto
  3. 15 C. Dalle Mura
  4. 14 S. Scognamillo
  5. 6 A. Siatounis
  6. 28 C. Kouan
  7. 8 M. Maita
  8. 77 E. Pierozzi
  9. 29 D. Okereke
  10. 9 F. Salvemini
  11. 10 L. Cherubini

Bench: A. Prisco, L. Caldirola, D. Lamesta, Mattia Mannini, L. Sernicola, P. Simonetti, M. Esposito, P. Saio, G. Mignani, S. Verdi, M. Tumminello

Arezzo vs Benevento head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Arezzo 0 · draws 0 · Benevento 1.

ArezzoDrawsBenevento
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Benevento1-0ArezzoSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match