Palermo vs Carrarese preview
In the fixture between Palermo and Carrarese, the 1X2 probabilities show Palermo at 66%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 12%. Palermo's recent form is strong, with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Carrarese has 2 wins and 4 losses in the same period.
The expected goals indicate Palermo at 2.07 and Carrarese at 0.78, suggesting a clear advantage for the home side. However, the model also shows a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score, meaning Carrarese could still find a way to disrupt Palermo's momentum.
Palermo vs Carrarese: model vs market
| Source | Palermo | Draw | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Published | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Palermo vs Carrarese odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Palermo, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 1.40 | 1.45 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 4.70 | -0.30 |
| Carrarese | 6.65 | 6.07 | -0.58 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Palermo and Carrarese expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Palermo / Carrarese)
- 1.59 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Palermo / Carrarese)
- 0.89 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Palermo vs Carrarese score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Palermo goals. Columns: Carrarese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Palermo vs Carrarese goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Palermo vs Carrarese
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Carrarese | 15% | 6.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Palermo or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Carrarese) | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win by 2+ | 42% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Palermo and Carrarese recent form
Palermo
5W 1D 0L
Carrarese
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Palermo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Carrarese away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Palermo at home only, Carrarese away only.
Palermo vs Carrarese head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Palermo 2 · draws 1 · Carrarese 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Carrarese | 0-1 | Palermo | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-11-29 | Palermo | 5-0 | Carrarese | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-05-13 | Palermo | 1-1 | Carrarese | Serie B |
| 2024-12-07 | Carrarese | 1-0 | Palermo | Serie B |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cremonese v Juve Stabia — match page 2026-10-24
- Virtus Entella vs Mantova 2026-10-24
- Avellino v Padova — match page 2026-10-24
- Modena vs Cesena 2026-10-24
- Sudtirol v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-24
- Catanzaro vs Ascoli — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arezzo vs Benevento — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Verona vs Pisa — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Palermo, previous: Mantova v Palermo analysis
- Palermo, next: Pisa – Palermo, 2026-10-28
- Carrarese, previous: Carrarese – Modena, 2026-10-17
- Carrarese, next: Carrarese vs Arezzo prediction