Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus Prediction & Betting Tips 23/10/2026

Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus preview

In the upcoming match between Empoli and Vicenza Virtus, the 1X2 probabilities show Empoli at 43% and Vicenza Virtus at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.72 for Empoli and 1.12 for Vicenza Virtus.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating potential uncertainty. Both teams to score stands at 57%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%. This suggests that while scoring is expected, factors like recent form, where Empoli has lost three of their last five matches, could impact the outcome.

Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Empoli	Draw	Vicenza Virtus
Model	49%	26%	25%
Market	40%	27%	33%
Published	42%	27%	31%
Edge	+9%	-1%	-8%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.18.
Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Empoli below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded 2026-10-17 — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.

Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Empoli, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.30Now 2.33 +0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Empoli	2.30	2.33	+0.03
Draw	3.36	3.42	+0.06
Vicenza Virtus	2.93	2.80	-0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Empoli and Vicenza Virtus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.73Empoli

1.18Vicenza Virtus

Total expected goals: 2.92
Attack rating (Empoli / Vicenza Virtus): 0.86 / 0.95
Defence rating (Empoli / Vicenza Virtus): 1.14 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 5.3% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 1 8.3% 12.2% 6.6% 2.6% 1.0% 2 8.1% 9.6% 5.7% 2.2% 0.9% 3 4.7% 5.6% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 3.0% 3.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Empoli goals. Columns: Vicenza Virtus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Empoli	42%	2.37
	Draw	27%	3.73
	Vicenza Virtus	31%	3.22
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.79
	Under 2.5	44%	2.26
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.72
	No	42%	2.39
Double chance	1X (Empoli or draw)	69%	1.45
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Vicenza Virtus)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	Empoli win by 2+	27%	3.66
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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