Carrarese vs Arezzo preview
In the upcoming fixture between Carrarese and Arezzo, the 1X2 probabilities show Carrarese at 48%, a draw at 30%, and Arezzo at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Carrarese has an expected goals figure of 1.40, while Arezzo sits at 0.88.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 40%, and both teams to score stands at 45%. Carrarese's recent form includes two wins followed by three losses and a draw, while Arezzo has one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six matches. These trends could influence the match outcome, making predictions less certain.
Carrarese vs Arezzo: model vs market
| Source | Carrarese | Draw | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.80.
- The market prices Carrarese below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Carrarese vs Arezzo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Carrarese, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | 2.41 | 2.43 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.20 | +0.05 |
| Arezzo | 2.92 | 2.94 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Carrarese and Arezzo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Carrarese / Arezzo)
- 0.80 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Carrarese / Arezzo)
- 0.89 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Carrarese vs Arezzo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Carrarese goals. Columns: Arezzo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Carrarese vs Arezzo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Carrarese vs Arezzo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrarese | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Arezzo | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Carrarese or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Arezzo) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Carrarese win by 2+ | 28% | 3.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Carrarese and Arezzo recent form
Carrarese
2W 1D 3L
Arezzo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Carrarese at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Arezzo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Carrarese at home only, Arezzo away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Ascoli v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-27
- Cesena vs Empoli — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Virtus Entella vs Avellino 2026-10-27
- Padova vs Sudtirol 2026-10-27
- Vicenza Virtus vs Modena — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mantova vs Cremonese 2026-10-27
- Pisa v Palermo — match page 2026-10-28
- Juve Stabia vs Verona — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Carrarese, previous: Palermo v Carrarese analysis
- Arezzo, previous: Arezzo – Benevento, 2026-10-24