Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama preview
Avispa Fukuoka hosts Fagiano Okayama with a 41% chance for the visitors to win, compared to 29% for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Fagiano Okayama's stronger recent form, winning three of their last five matches.
The market suggests a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score. However, Avispa Fukuoka's expected goals stand at just 0.98, indicating they may struggle to find the net. With a confidence grade of C, the predictions are less certain, meaning unexpected outcomes could arise.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama: model vs market
| Source | Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Market | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Published | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Edge | -7% | -2% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fagiano Okayama below the model: +8.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fagiano Okayama, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 3.10 | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
| Fagiano Okayama | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Avispa Fukuoka / Fagiano Okayama)
- 0.78 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Avispa Fukuoka / Fagiano Okayama)
- 0.97 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Avispa Fukuoka goals. Columns: Fagiano Okayama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avispa Fukuoka | 29% | 3.44 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Fagiano Okayama | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.02 |
| No | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Avispa Fukuoka or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Fagiano Okayama) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fagiano Okayama win by 2+ | 24% | 4.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama recent form
Avispa Fukuoka
0W 2D 4L
Fagiano Okayama
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Avispa Fukuoka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Fagiano Okayama away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Avispa Fukuoka at home only, Fagiano Okayama away only.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Avispa Fukuoka 0 · draws 1 · Fagiano Okayama 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Fagiano Okayama | 2-0 | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| 2026-02-08 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1-1 | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
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