Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia preview
In the J1 League match between Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia, the market suggests a 51% chance for Machida Zelvia to win, compared to 24% for Kyoto Sanga. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, indicating a strong expectation for goals, with Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 62%.
Kyoto Sanga's expected goals stand at 1.19, while Machida Zelvia has a higher expected goal tally of 2.05. Recent form shows Kyoto Sanga with three wins in their last six matches, while Machida Zelvia has four wins in the same period. A draw is also a possibility, with a 25% chance, which could affect the predicted scoreline. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the match outcome.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia: model vs market
| Source | Kyoto Sanga | Draw | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Published | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Edge | -4% | -3% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.19.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +7.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Machida Zelvia, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto Sanga | 3.75 | 3.69 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| Machida Zelvia | 1.85 | 1.90 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Kyoto Sanga / Machida Zelvia)
- 0.92 / 1.44
- Defence rating (Kyoto Sanga / Machida Zelvia)
- 1.09 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kyoto Sanga goals. Columns: Machida Zelvia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kyoto Sanga | 24% | 4.15 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Machida Zelvia | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kyoto Sanga or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Machida Zelvia) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win by 2+ | 35% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia recent form
Kyoto Sanga
3W 1D 2L
Machida Zelvia
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kyoto Sanga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Machida Zelvia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kyoto Sanga at home only, Machida Zelvia away only.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Kyoto Sanga 0 · draws 0 · Machida Zelvia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-06 | Machida Zelvia | 1-0 | Kyoto Sanga | Emperor Cup |
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