Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: model vs market
| Source | Tokyo Verdy | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7% | 16% | 76% |
| Market | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| Published | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Edge | -6% | -5% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below the model: +10.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.46, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 6.55 | 7.00 | +0.45 |
| Draw | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.05 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.44 | 1.42 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tokyo Verdy and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Tokyo Verdy / Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
- 0.72 / 1.64
- Defence rating (Tokyo Verdy / Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
- 1.17 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tokyo Verdy goals. Columns: Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tokyo Verdy | 12% | 8.42 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.09 | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tokyo Verdy or draw) | 32% | 3.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima) | 88% | 1.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win by 2+ | 55% | 1.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tokyo Verdy and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
Tokyo Verdy
1W 2D 3L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tokyo Verdy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tokyo Verdy at home only, Sanfrecce Hiroshima away only.
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