FC Tokyo vs Urawa preview
FC Tokyo faces Urawa in the J1 League, with a 56% probability for a home win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, supported by a 62% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score. FC Tokyo's expected goals stand at 2.01, while Urawa's is lower at 1.19.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Urawa has shown strong recent form, winning five of their last six matches, which could challenge FC Tokyo's current momentum of six matches unbeaten. The head-to-head record also favors FC Tokyo, with one win and two draws in the last three encounters.
FC Tokyo vs Urawa: model vs market
| Source | FC Tokyo | Draw | Urawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 23% | 21% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.19.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Tokyo vs Urawa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Tokyo, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.00 | -0.10 |
| Urawa | 4.44 | 4.38 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Tokyo and Urawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (FC Tokyo / Urawa)
- 1.26 / 1.25
- Defence rating (FC Tokyo / Urawa)
- 0.73 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Tokyo vs Urawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Tokyo goals. Columns: Urawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Tokyo vs Urawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Tokyo vs Urawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Urawa | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Tokyo or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Urawa) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Tokyo and Urawa recent form
FC Tokyo
5W 1D 0L
Urawa
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Tokyo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Urawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Tokyo at home only, Urawa away only.
FC Tokyo vs Urawa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FC Tokyo 1 · draws 2 · Urawa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Urawa | 0-0 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2026-02-14 | FC Tokyo | 1-1 | Urawa | J1 League |
| 2025-08-27 | FC Tokyo | 2-1 | Urawa | Emperor Cup |
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