Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse: model vs market
| Source | Mito Hollyhock | Draw | Shimizu S-pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 33% | 36% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | -4% | +4% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.64, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shimizu S-pulse, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mito Hollyhock | 2.70 | 2.63 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.29 | 3.28 | -0.01 |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 2.51 | 2.55 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mito Hollyhock and Shimizu S-pulse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.08
- Attack rating (Mito Hollyhock / Shimizu S-pulse)
- 0.76 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Mito Hollyhock / Shimizu S-pulse)
- 1.11 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mito Hollyhock goals. Columns: Shimizu S-pulse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mito Hollyhock | 34% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mito Hollyhock or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Shimizu S-pulse) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shimizu S-pulse win by 2+ | 15% | 6.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mito Hollyhock and Shimizu S-pulse recent form
Mito Hollyhock
1W 2D 3L
Shimizu S-pulse
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mito Hollyhock at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Shimizu S-pulse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mito Hollyhock at home only, Shimizu S-pulse away only.
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